Report: US calorie intake could reduce by trillions by 2030

A surge in the use of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy play a role in a projected calorie intake decline of 10 trillion in U.S. adults by 2030, according to a new report.

The U.S. total calorie consumption reduction marks the first since 1960s, according to a report by Impact Analytics published Oct 9. The report analyzed grocery retail sales data across various U.S. regions including the Northeast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest.

The AI-driven data group reported that by 2030, the average adult should consume 100 to 800 less kilocalories per year, leading to an around 10 trillion kilocalorie annual reduction in most U.S. adults.

The average American consumes around 3,864 calories per day, according data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture last updated in early 2023.

The Impact Analytics report expects that number to decrease between 2,800 and 3,500 for the majority of adults.

The report listed a surge in GLP-1 drug usage as a factor for a shift toward healthier food options alongside public initiatives like calorie labeling and soda taxes as well as overall health awareness. A shift toward healthier food options and distaste for processed foods is expected to alter how grocers will merchandise their shelf space, according to the report.

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Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. sales in healthy food categories have increased around 5-8.7% annually, according to the report.

"We're moving from the sugary foods, processed foods to more healthy foods," Impact Analytics CEO Prashant Agrawal told USA TODAY. "GLP is a cause of it. There's also the fact that people are more worried about ultra-processed foods."

Grocery stores in the Midwest have most growth in healthy food sales, averaging between 10-22%, while the Northeast has seen a 0.5-5% shift away from unhealthy options.

The demand for fresh produce and organic products has also risen, with a 12.4% increase in fresh fruit sales and a 9.2% increase in vegetable sales growth between 2023 and 2024.

Agrawal added that he expects the shift to alter the way grocers assort what items to stock five years from now as well as store layouts.

While GLP-1 drugs have seen a drastic surge in the U.S. since the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of Wegovy (semaglutide) injection to treat chronic weight in 2021. It was the first chronic weight management drug approved to treat obese or overweight adults since 2014.

The popularity of GLP-1 receptor drugs has also grown immensely with consumers. Quarterly sales of anti-obesity drugs surpassed $1.1 billion midway through 2023, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office.

Last year one in 60 adults were prescribed a GLP-1 medication, according to the American Pharmacists Association, and the number is expected to rise.

Contributing: Ken Alltucker

This story has been updated to resolve an inaccuracy.